Sheet 04 · Wagers & prediction markets
Where the model
and the market disagree.
A sportsbook posts a number with its own money behind it and corrects it in public within minutes. Iron Tuna posts its own number beside it. The gap is the reading; what you do with it is yours.
| Game | Kickoff | Spread | Total | Implied away | Implied home | Iron Tuna total | Gap |
|---|
Reading the lines…
Lines are a market median, pulled on a schedule and cached, never fetched from your browser. A gap is the model total less the market total; under 2 points is agreement. The model total is Iron Tuna’s own expected points for the two clubs, fitted from the games that do carry a line.
| Player | Prop | Line | Model | Gap | Lean |
|---|
Reading the props…
A lean is a gap of at least 5% between the model and the book’s posted line, not a recommendation. Every row here is a quoted market. Where no book has priced a player the line would be the game total applied to his own share — the same input the model uses — so there is nothing to disagree with and he is left off.
| # | Player | Opp | Probability | Expected TDs | Basis |
|---|
Reading the TD board…
A quoted anytime-touchdown price where a book has posted one, and a Poisson probability off the model’s own weekly touchdown line where none has. Every row says which.
The column · analyst opinion
The archive →Reading the column…
Column entries are one analyst’s reading of the numbers above, not advice and not a guarantee. Past entries and their outcomes are kept in the archive so the record is public.
Prediction markets
Game winners, season win totals and divisions, player awards, and weekly touchdown and yardage markets, each priced beside the model with its move since open. Venues under review: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated, US) and Polymarket, labelled per row. The rows above are illustrative — no contract price has been fetched, and none will be until the panel opens. Prices are informational; nothing is traded here.